This is the first of what we hope will be a regular newsletter column on message and narrative. We’re hoping to start a conversation here that can be continued during our monthly Communications and Narrative Working Group calls. If you’re not a member of that working group but want to talk more about message and narrative, please consider joining. You’ll get a weekly roundup of news clips relevant to our work, as well as first crack at communication resources and an opportunity to connect with PIF partners who share your interests.
The fraud pivot
Our focus for this column is fraud. Not actual fraud, but the pivot the Trump administration and its allies in Congress have made away from “mass deportation” to “fraud” as the focus of their communications from Capitol Hill to statehouses across the country. As with all things Trump, the fraud message is aimed squarely at the MAGA base, and there’s a lot of lying and manipulation going on here. But that doesn’t mean we can ignore it.
A 2024 YouGov poll found that more than ⅓ of Americans believed that at least half the people served by safety net programs are “fraudulently claiming benefits,” and for Republicans – the people Trump’s communications are aimed at – that number is 52%. The same survey found that 73% of Republicans (as compared to 19% of Democrats) felt immigrants get too much government assistance. As the White House’s intensive lobbying for voter ID legislation illustrates, the administration’s campaign to associate immigrants with fraud also includes elections. Again, this meets the MAGA base where they are – a 2022 poll focused on Republicans found that more than half (54%) believed noncitizens vote illegally in U.S. elections.
While I haven’t seen (and don’t want to) the administration’s internal polling, the intensity of their pivot to the fraud message suggests that they think it will drive turnout in November. That means we can expect to see a focus on fraud for at least the rest of 2026.
What is PIF saying?
So, what do we as a coalition and a community of advocates do about it? We at PIF are committed to remaining nimble and adapting as the environment changes. But we got considerable traction during last year’s congressional budget “reconciliation” debate by clearly and consistently calling the administration on its lies, impeaching the motives behind those lies, calling out abuses of power employed to implement policy, and telling the truth about who would be hurt by policy changes. That approach has also informed our statements on fraud, related legislation, and related administration policies.
